How do you know you’re living through a major global transformation – possibly the greatest that humanity has ever seen? Let me try three very different explanations – and see which you find most compelling.

1.Take the Historical View

The history of the last five hundred years has been about establishing empire, conquering territory by force and establishing a single economic market system across the globe. Now that process is nearly complete and something different is emerging.

Since the 1960s we have seen the rise of large-scale social movements that are shifting us in another direction. First were the liberation movements of the so-called third world, followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of apartheid and the Tiananmen protests. More recently this global tide of change has manifested as anti-globalisation, the “Arab Spring” and the Occupy Movement.

Of course there are many other less positive things happening in the world. There’s the rise of fundamentalism and continuing conflict in parts of Africa and the Middle-East. But these may well be signs of the chaos that inevitably precedes the fall of any empire.

2. Consider Ancient Wisdom

Using a very different frame of reference, many of the ancient wisdom traditions look even further across time to explain shifts in civilisations and consciousness. Perhaps the best known (and often misunderstood) is the Mayan calendar. Then there are various Native American prophecies and a lesser-known Mongolian schematic which charts historical cycles.

All of these mark the start of the 21st century as a transition point into an era of unity for humanity, the unification of science and spirituality and/or the ascendance of the feminine.

I have taken my own readings using the ancient Chinese oracle the I Ching. This confirmed that we are entering a transformation beyond human control which will release our hidden potential.

3. Look to the margins

One of the lessons of permaculture is that change begins at the margins. The most significant changes in nature (and we might therefore say in human systems too) do not come from the mainstream or from large organisations or centres of power. They begin at the margins and gradually take hold.
In this framework we would turn to the “alternative” to see the seeds of the future. Here there is an abundance of creativity: local currencies, the gift economy, permaculture and organics, horizontal social movement and the use of virtual spaces to support the sharing economy and social mobilisation.
I’m not sure which of these three is the most persuasive perspective. In truth I flit between them at different times – depending on where I’m at. Sometimes I need to reassure my rational brain, at others my spiritual side and at others I need to see some “evidence” at close range.

In the latter case, I like to look also to young people – they are both a marginalised group and often a barometer of the future. In the past year alone I have met a staggering array of young people who embody a different way of being (and doing).

These are people who have grown up in the intentional communities that our generation formed as part of our own counter-culture. They are the children of same sex couples, those educated at home or even in the mainstream who now want more from their life that a well-paid job. They want to work for a cause, to feel part of a movement and to have meaningful relationships both at work and socially. I find they have an abundance of tolerance and a way of “sensing” the world intuitively.

I have also met and worked with an ex-hip-hop star who felt that he almost lost himself for a while and now wants to live a meaningful life of activism and spirituality. I have worked with MBA students disillusioned with the traditional role of business and sick of the hierarchical education system that perpetuates it. And I have mentored young mothers, who have lived their whole lives in the care of the state, had their own children removed and who now want to change the system that has caused them so much pain.

These are the people who for me embody the future. They are living the transformation – because their activism comes from a very real and very grounded place. It seeks to create the future rather than rail against the past.

The great thing is, it may not take many people like this to trigger a worldwide tipping point. In her TED Talk on non-violence Erica Chenoweth argues that 3.5% of a population actively and persistently engaged is enough to topple a dictatorship. Could this also be enough to trigger something globally transformational?