.

          The
Great Recession that began in 2008 soon escalated into a “Global MegaCrisis” of
interlocking fears over climate change, energy shortages, financial instability,
and other yet unforeseen threats. (Halal and Marien, 2011)  As the survey below
suggests, people the world over have deep anxiety over this historic challenge
and they do not see a way through the crisis.

Survey on the Global MegaCrisis
Four Scenarios on a Pessimism vs Optimism Axis
(Results as of  Nov, 2014    Sample = 60)

Decline to Disaster – 25% probability World fails to react. Global
warming, sea level rise, energy shortages, economic depression, nuclear
exchange, etc. Loss of civilization in major nations.

Muddling Down – 35% probability Weak response. High-tech dark age,
ecological damage, increased poverty and conflict.

Muddling Up – 28%
probability  World reacts out of need
and the help of IT/AI. Disaster avoided but some increased disorder

Rise to Maturity – 12% probability Ideal transition to a
responsible global order.

        Our technology forecasts at www.TechCastGlobal.com offer an
understanding of how the Global MegaCrisis is likely to be resolved. For more
than two decades, TechCast has pooled available knowledge and the judgement of
140 experts worldwide to forecast technology breakthroughs and their social
impact. The Project was cited by the U.S. National Academies as among the best
available. It could be thought of as the Hubble Telescope of technology
forecasting, able to see more clearly into the future.

          The graph below shows the dates when leading technologies in seven
fields are likely to enter the mainstream. Some of these technologies are
available commercially but they have not yet reached the 30 percent adoption
level where new breakthroughs enter widespread use. Dramatic advances will
transform life in the years ahead.

          As the Technology Revolution picks
up speed in about 2020, we forecast wide-spread advances in all fields, as shown
in the graph. This period is also likely to enjoy near-infinite computing power
due to second-generation machines using optical, bio, nano, and quantum
architectures.  Smart robots are likely
to enter homes and offices, and AI should also become sufficiently
sophisticated to automate routine knowledge.  As intelligent devices take
over routine tasks, we are even now shifting attention beyond knowledge to
focus on values, beliefs, ideology, vision, and other higher levels of thought.
This pivotal transition is occurring not out of noble motives but simply out of
the sheer necessity of dealing with the Global Megacrisis.

          Our
forecasts suggest the Muddling Up scenario is entirely plausible, and the passage is most
likely to culminate about 2020 when human powers should increase dramatically
and threats should reach intolerable levels. A coherent global order could easily develop about 2030-50,
and possibly sooner. There is no assurance, of course, but this alternative
offers a reasonable basis for the type of vision needed to meet the challenge.
Without such aspirations, we would remain captives of an aging world.

         This
is a transition that will transform global systems, social institutions, and
our personal lives, so it is urgent to consider how we can best meet the events
to come. Because, rest assured, within five or ten years from now, our
lifestyles, careers, communities, and the world as we know it are likely to
change quickly and dramatically. I believe these changes will be for the better
generally, but they are likely to be difficult for those who are unprepared.

          Events
could prove us wrong, of course, and this transition appears to be
especially difficult, like all evolutionary processes. The most brilliant new technologies and robust economic
systems alone will not succeed unless we accept responsibility for these
challenges, set bold new goals, marshal our capabilities, learn to collaborate
across differences, and find some measure of wisdom. These are the elements of
maturity in any system –  human,
national, or global. To survive, much less thrive, as disruptive events unfold
over the next five to ten years, the world as a whole will have to make
difficult  choices on climate control,
transitioning to renewable energy, reforming business and government, and
resolving conflict.

          From an evolutionary
perspective, this is not simply an unusually
great crisis but a difficult passage to a rather different world. It is
precisely because so many people are so deeply concerned that a series of
mental shifts is underway. We are being pulled
by historic trends into a massive transition we do not understand. It could
prove a boon for those able to envision the other side of this transition, and
it offers a rare opportunity for badly needed structural change. We are being forced
to become responsible and act wisely. If we fail to meet this challenge, our
lifestyles, the prospects for our children and grandchildren, for nations, and
for the planet will decline severely.    

References

Halal, W.E. and Marien, M. (2011), “Global MegaCrisis: A
Survey of Four Scenarios on a Pessimism-Optimism Axis,” Journal of Future Studies, Vol. 16 No. 2, pp.65-84.